On Wednesday, Ohio will take on Buffalo on ESPN2. A week ago, it was going to be one of the most important Group of Five games this season.
That all changed last week when Ohio lost to Miami 38-30, ending the Bobcats’ five-year win streak in the “Battle of the Bricks.” More importantly, it halted — and all but destroyed — the Bobcats’ chances of making the Mid-American Conference Championship Game.
Wednesday’s game is still important, but the Bobcats no longer control their own destiny: Buffalo (9-1, 6-0 MAC) will have to win just one of its two final games to punch its ticket to the MAC Championship Game.
It may seem like a long shot, but there is still hope for Ohio. The Bobcats (6-4, 4-2 MAC) will need to beat the Bulls, then hope they lose to Bowling Green next week. Bill Connelly, the creator of S&P+, gives Buffalo a 94 percent chance of beating the Falcons.
And even if Buffalo loses twice in a row to end its season, Ohio will have to take care of business against Akron (4-5, 2-4 MAC) on Nov. 23.
Kickoff for Wednesday’s game is set for 7 p.m. at Peden Stadium.
Below is a guide to gameday with how to follow along, depth charts, who has the edge, an opponent breakdown, notes from coach Frank Solich’s press conference and our predictions.
Following along
How to watch: Wednesday will mark Ohio’s fourth midweek MACtion game — and its third on an ESPN network — this season. It can be seen on ESPN2 or online here. Lowell Galindo, Tom Luginbill and Paul Carcaterra will have the call.
How to listen: The game can be heard on the Ohio IMG Sports Network — as usual, Russ Eisenstein and Rob Cornelius will be behind the mic. The broadcasts are available online through OhioBobcats.com and TuneIn.com/OhioBobcats.
How to find stats: Click here for stats.
Depth charts
Solich’s news conference
Ohio coach Frank Solich addressed the media Monday coming off the Bobcats’ loss to Miami. He also previewed the team’s matchup with Buffalo.
On the loss to Miami: “Wasn’t a great ballgame by us. I thought our players played hard; I really liked the way they came back. I think, as coaches, we could have adjusted a little bit better over the course of the game to help us out a little bit. You keep learning, I guess, in this business. We just did not play as well as we are capable of playing. A lot of credit to Miami — I think they played well.”
On the potential to play in a high-scoring game: “Here’s how I see it: Both teams have really good receivers, both teams have a really good quarterback, both teams have really good running backs, both teams have a really good offensive line. Whoever is going to make the most plays is going to win the ballgame. Whoever is going to be able to establish the run is going to have the edge in terms of being able to control the ball coming off of that with passes. Both teams are talented in all those areas. It should be quite a ballgame.”
On Buffalo’s passing attack and how to defend it: “Usually, you're not sitting in one defense, you’re not sitting in one coverage. To say that you’re just going to move a guy around or you’re going to double cover him all the time, those things don't happen. If you look at it, they have more than once receiver that's catching passes. They’re doing a good job of spreading the ball around on their offense.”
On whether or not losing to Buffalo last season will be motivation for Wednesday: “I think players do think back on the previous season, do think back on the previous games. It probably means something to them, I don’t think there's any question about that. But that’s not going to be the deciding factor in this game.”
Opponent breakdown
All-time series: Ohio leads 14-10.
Last time they met: Ohio fell to Buffalo 31-24 last year at UB Stadium on Black Friday. It was a week after a gut-punching loss to Akron that ended the Bobcats’ MAC Championship Game hopes. Against Buffalo, Nathan Rourke was 15 of 30 with an interception and three total touchdowns.
Buffalo report: Buffalo is having its best season in program history. With one more win, it’ll lock up a berth in the MAC Championship Game for the second time in program history. Behind a record-setting offense that’s led by quarterback Tyree Jackson and wide receiver Anthony Johnson, the Bulls rank fourth in the conference in total offense. Buffalo, however, has also found success with its defense, which is holding opponents to a MAC-best 344.4 yards per game.
How Ohio wins: No turnovers. Stingy defense. Explosive plays. Sounds easy, but coming after a tough loss and against a formidable opponent, checking off that list may be harder. If the Bobcats can limit Johnson — who may be the best NFL draft prospect in the MAC — it will force the Bulls to run the ball, which Ohio has defended the best this season.
Player to watch: No. 4, senior linebacker Khalil Hodge. Most people know Jackson and Johnson, but the anchor of the Bull’s defense is Hodge, who ranks 11th in the nation in tackles. He’s 12 tackles shy of 400 in his career.
The edge
When Ohio has the ball: The Bobcats looked suspect in the first half last week against Miami. Of course, they broke out of it and had a chance to win at the end. But if Nathan Rourke and the Bobcats have a hiccup against Khalil Hodge and the Buffalo defense, they could find themselves in a hole.
Edge: Draw
When Buffalo has the ball: The tandem of Tyreke Jackson and Anthony Johnson has become the most prolific in the MAC. It’s tough to find a place to start when talking about this offense. It’s the best in the conference. The only team to slow the Bulls down this season has been Army. The Bobcats’ defensive line will have to contain Jackson, who is quite mobile. The secondary will have to keep Johnson in front it to stop the big plays from happening, something Ohio has struggled with.
Edge: Buffalo
Predictions
Spencer: I just think Buffalo’s offense will be too much for Ohio’s defense in the closing minutes. The Bobcats will try to make it a shootout, but the Bulls would love to play that game. Nathan Rourke has one of his best games, but it’s not enough. Buffalo wins 37-31.
Pete: Nathan Rourke has one of his best games, fueled by last season’s loss at Buffalo and last week’s loss to Miami. The Bobcats’ defense shows improvement from last week. Really, one quarter is what killed them last week. A final stat: Ohio has gone 5-1 at home against Buffalo during Solich’s tenure. Ohio wins, forcing Buffalo to win next week, 42-38.
