With the Academy Awards only 17 days away, it is time for all of us who purport to have some knowledge about the proceedings to dole out predictions. This means one thing for me: Every prediction I get wrong will now be immortalized in print.
So let the eventual humiliation begin with the male acting categories.
Best Actor nominees: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote), Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow), Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain), Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line), David Strathairn (Good Night
and Good Luck).
Oscar voters love portrayals of real people (last year's Best Actor batch contained four, this year just three), but this year two out of three real people here are least likely to win it. Strathairn gives a solemn, intense performance as Edward R. Murrow in Luck but the film's Oscar praise comes more from its politics, cinematography and that nostalgic, patriotic tug decrepit Oscar voters are getting. Phoenix doesn't exactly merit a standing ovation for his lackluster performance as Johnny Cash, so the fact that he is least likely of anyone to win the prize is comforting.
So it's down to Hoffman, Ledger and Howard. Luckily, all three gave great performances, and while Hoffman is almost surely the winner here, there could be an upset. In 2003, the Best Actor race was split between Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt) and Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York), but it was rising star Adrien Brody (The Pianist) who took it. The Brody this year: Howard.
Hoping for a shocker doesn't mean one will happen, and Hoffman is as locked-in as Dick and Perry. Will Win: Hoffman. Should Win: Howard.
Best Supporting Actor nominees: George Clooney (Syriana), Matt Dillon (Crash), Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man), Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain), William Hurt (A History of Violence).
This is the most interesting and baffling category of the race because it could go any of five ways. Here goes: Clooney gets two brownie points this year for not only putting on weight for his role but suffering in it. Oscar voters eat both up. There is no reason Giamatti's hokey performance is nominated aside from his Sideways snub last year, but voters aren't exactly averse to consolation prizes (right, Ren+ and Good Luck won't take Best Director or Best Original Screenplay. But anything goes in the supporting categories, so not only do I hope Dillon wins for his performance in Crash
but he could pull ahead. Will win: Clooney. Should win: Dillon.
-Matt is The Post's Campus Editor. Send him an e-mail at mb102503@ohiou.edu.
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