This winter, abnormally dry conditions are expected in Ohio due to the upcoming El Niño, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
El Niño is the warm phase associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which is when cycles of warm and cool water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific change where ocean heat is released in the atmosphere, influencing global weather patterns, according to NOAA.
Ryan Fogt, professor of meteorology and director of Scalia Laboratory for Atmospheric Analysis, Ohio University’s on-campus weather lab, said there is a good chance the El Niño will cause 2027 to be the warmest year in recorded history.
“We can still have snow, and we can still have some cold days, but we won't have as much extreme cold for a long period of time,” Fogt said. “It's not as common in an El Niño year.”
Aaron Wilson, Ohio’s state climatologist and an agriculture weather and climate field specialist for Ohio State University Extension, studies ENSO, as well as weather and climate in Ohio and the Midwest.
Fogt said forecast predictions can be made based on the ocean because it has a large influence on weather, but fluctuates less than land or air. Currently, the largest impact on the Pacific Ocean is the El Niño, according to Fogt.
ENSO is continuing to grow stronger and is predicted to bring a strong-to-very-strong El Niño from January through March 2027, according to NOAA. Fogt said this year’s El Niño will be “record-breaking.”
According to Fogt, climate change is a primary reason for the extreme El Niño.
“I think it's just that the ocean has been storing heat for quite a long time because of climate change,” Fogt said. “Because of climate change and background warming of the ocean, most of that being near below the surface, this El Niño event is taking a lot of that really strong heating and moving it to the surface and releasing it now.”
Typically, an El Niño causes less precipitation within Ohio and a strong subtropical jet stream that causes more precipitation in southern U.S. states, according to Wilson.
"So you can have very different situations across the state,” Wilson said. “Where maybe the north stays primarily warm and dry, but the south might actually be a little bit wet depending on how often we see that moisture.”
Wilson said farmers should be aware of drought concerns going into next year and spoke with the Ohio Farm Bureau to share what is expected for the rest of the harvest season.
“So that could then help farmers decide maybe what kind of hybrids or what kind of seeds they’re going to purchase for the following planting season,” Wilson said.
Wilson also said even if this winter is dry, soil moisture in the state is not a concern because of the wet conditions experienced in August and September.
However, Fogt predicted more rainfall than snowfall this winter, as Ohio can expect higher average daily temperatures.
“We might have, if it’s a normal precipitation year, for example, with it being slightly warmer, we might have more rain events,” Fogt said. “Or maybe even some ice events, but it’s very difficult to make a precipitation forecast in Ohio with El Niño because its signature is much stronger in the West Coast and the Southern U.S.”
Fogt said climate change often brings more intense precipitation, such as the flooding seen in the Midwest recently. While there are ways to regulate the climate on a local level, Fogt said national policies focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions are key to solving the issue.
“With an election coming up, it's really critical to, if you're worried about these things and climate change impacts, to go out and make sure you're voting for candidates that have this as one of their items and on their agenda, things that they want to work for and change, and vote for those people that have those same sort of concerns that you do,” Fogt said.
Wilson said to use the state climate office for information on upcoming weather events.
