Come Friday night in Detroit, Ohio will enter the Mid-American Conference Championship Game hoping for its first conference title since 1968.
It’ll also enter the game as a massive underdog. That’s no secret.
Western Michigan is No. 21 in the country, as of press time, and as Ohio coach Frank Solich put it, “rightfully so.”
Currently, the spread is +19 (Western Michigan is 19 point favorites) according to bovada.lv.
So, if they want to win, these are the three most important keys to an upset and the first title in 48 years.
Scoring early — and TDs
While Ohio is 8-4 (6-2 MAC), five of the six conference wins were decided by a touchdown or less. That shows how reliable the defense has been in conference play; additionally, the offense struggling to gain separation from opponents is apparent.
The Bobcats need to change that if they want any shot of beating the Broncos.
In every conference win this year, Ohio won if it scored first; it lost if opponents did. The Bobcats are coming off the first game without a touchdown since 2014, and the first win without a touchdown since the 1970s.
Louie Zervos has been a phenomenal kicker — and better than anyone thought he’d be this season. That’s an advantage for Ohio. But kicking field goals instead of touchdowns will likely cripple any chance the Bobcats have at an upset. Just use the first half against Tennessee, when Ohio kicked four field goals to trail 14-12, as a reference.
Winning field possession
The win over Akron clinched the East Division. It also indicated how important field position can be.
Against Akron, the Zips’ average starting field position was their 25-yard line. In the fourth quarter, their average starting spot was their own 14-yard line.
By forcing Akron to start deep in its own territory, that added pressure on its offense to move the ball — not the Ohio defense.
If Ohio can get out to an early lead, or at least keep the score close while forcing Western Michigan to manufacture long drives to score, chances at winning improve drastically.
Stopping the run
Averaging 44.8 points per game, Western’s scoring production dwarfs Ohio’s 26.8. The Broncos average more passing yards per game than rushing (257.2 compared to 247.2), but they’re very much a running team.
That should bode well for the Bobcats. Through conference play they’ve led the way in fewest running yards allowed (105.1 yards per game). Assuming Ohio can prevent Western from establishing a running game, it would force Western to pass more.
While Bronco wide receiver Corey Davis has the most career receiving yards in NCAA history, if Ohio can anticipate playing against the pass, the Championship Game will become more one-dimensional.
The only problem for the Ohio, however, is that no opponent has been able to stop Western thus far. Then again, the conference championship would be a good time for a first.
