It would seem the U.S. campaign of military pressure against Venezuela has reached a point of no return, as military strikes on Venezuelan territory are no longer a possibility, but an imminent and inevitable outcome.
This action comes amidst the collapse of diplomatic talks and has been backed by a massive increase in U.S. military assets in the region as a show of force. Action is almost certain, but the only variable determining the timeline now is the unpredictability of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30.
The evidence for impending strikes moves beyond posturing, as evidenced by the increase in escalation last week. On Oct.15, the U.S. sent at least three B-52 strategic bombers flying off the Venezuelan coast, while later the same day, President Donald Trump publicly confirmed the authorization of covert CIA “lethal action” against Venezuelan nationals linked to narcotics and corruption, which suggests the White House has moved from deterrence to a more active, high-stakes form of planning.
This path to confrontation has formed as a result of the administration's efforts to dismantle the Tren de Aragua gang, a Foreign Terrorist Organization that some of Washington claims is directly linked to the regime of President Nicolás Maduro. The pressure began months ago, marked by the U.S. Department of State increasing the bounty for Maduro’s capture and arrest to $50 million in August. Since early September, the U.S. has engaged in at least five lethal strikes on suspected cartel boats and submersibles, leading to at least 32 deaths and two captured or wounded as of Oct. 17.
Notably, beyond posturing, it’s also important to hear directly from Washington itself, as it has confirmed any form of diplomacy between the two nations has now collapsed. On Oct. 17, Trump met with reporters and commented on the reports that Maduro had offered major concessions to the U.S., where Trump had answered: “He has offered everything … You know why? Because he doesn’t want to f--- around with the United States.”
This rhetoric, combined with Trump’s earlier announcement on Oct. 15 that he is “very well looking at land now,” further confirms that military action is about to move inland, rather than solely focusing on maritime assets.
The capability to actually strike Venezuela is already well in place. With the deployment of roughly 4,000 Marines to Puerto Rico, U.S. forces now number around 10,000 personnel in the region. Under the U.S. Southern Command, it is now estimated that 10% of total U.S. naval assets are in the region. Despite this abundance, any actions committed by the U.S. seeks to avoid triggering a large-scale conflict. Instead, the U.S. will likely focus on the same pattern used in Iran, using limited strikes to target high-value military and criminal infrastructure. Specific locations likely include Air Force bases in Maracay, as well as targeting of Russian-supplied S-300 and S-125 air defense systems near the capital, Caracas.
Perhaps one of the only impediments to an immediate strike is the environment itself. The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30, poses a potential threat to logistics, which could prevent any large-scale military planning. Understandably, such a risk cannot be controlled by any military technology, but it may be one of the very few factors forcing the administration to hold off on a major strike until the season passes in early December.
Although Venezuela’s military is fractured and critically underfunded, it is not without assets and allies. Much of Latin America does not support Maduro’s regime, but China and Russia both have interests in the region. Despite this, they are likely to offer little assistance beyond condemnation. However, it is worth noting that Iran has supplied technology to Venezuela, enabling the country as one of, if not the only, Latin American nation to have Shahed-type kamikaze drones in its possession. However, this small and specialized capability is almost certainly insufficient to deter the U.S. military.
The timeline for strikes by the U.S. remains fluid. Although it is likely strikes will occur as early as the end of October, even as soon as the end of next week, the timeline for a larger, more decisive operation extends into the end of the hurricane season, delaying any major attack until early December.
Hunter is a senior studying political science and international studies at Ohio University. Please note the opinions expressed in this column do not represent those of The Post. Want to talk to Hunter about their column? Email them at hp626321@ohio.edu.
