A new form of gambling has taken off. Event predictions allow people to place bets on the outcome of future events with unknown outcomes; this could be betting on the winner of a football game or the next candidate for the 2028 presidential election.
Kalshi and Polymarket have been at the forefront of this new system by making easily accessible websites and apps.
These spaces, while relatively new, are already seeing great success from consumers. According to data collected by The Block, last month, Kalshi generated $9.55 billion, while its competitor, Polymarket, generated $7.66 billion. Kalshi increased from the previous month by a total of $2.7 billion, and Polymarket increased by $2.35 billion, making January the biggest month in either company’s history.
According to data from the National Council on Public Gambling, 20 million American adults reported problematic gambling behaviors. The rise of accessible prediction markets creates more danger by normalizing these high-risk habits.
Although gambling and sports betting have adopted the alias of “event predictions,” the harm these habits cause remains undeniable; gambling can become expensive and addictive, and platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are targeting young people.
The issue both of these companies share is their audience. The week of Jan. 4, Kalshi’s college football section reached a total of 32% of wagers, the highest it has ever been.
Kalshi is open to anyone above the age of 18 years old, whereas the common minimum age to participate in sports betting is 21 years old and older, except in states Kentucky, Montana, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Washington, D.C., where the minimum age to participate is 18 years old and older.
Kalshi additionally markets itself to students struggling with student loans. From the About Kalshi section, “For example, if you have student debt and are worried about relief not passing, you can purchase a contract and get a payout even if it doesn’t pass.” This further encourages young, vulnerable people to engage with gambling on their platforms.
Kalshi and Polymarket operate under legal frameworks set by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and not state-level gambling laws, such as age restrictions. The platforms created a culture that encourages small-scale wagers; this might seem like a generally harmless amount of money, and considering that the audience for the platform is younger, this could serve as an entry point before their gambling habits evolve.
Starting at a smaller wager and seeing rewards can be the initial use phase of addiction. As outlined by the American Addiction Centers, the phases of addiction include: initial use, misuse, tolerance, dependence, addiction and relapse.
As defined by the American Society of Addiction Medicine, “People with addiction use substances or engage in behaviors that become compulsive and often continue despite harmful consequences.” Every time someone participates in gambling, it is more than a simple game; it risks creating an addiction.
The platforms created a culture that normalizes low-risk prices and wagers for a high-risk activity. This encourages people to engage in gambling as it could become a financial tool to make a quick profit.
Data from the Mayo Clinic directly linked participation in gambling during teenage years to developing a compulsive gambling disorder later on in life. As the barriers in place to prevent most people under 21 from using traditional sports betting and gambling sites don’t yet exist for Kalshi and Polymarket, creating the danger of potentially forming a gambling addiction.
Despite the appearance online that Kalshi and Polymarket allow profit with low risk, we must acknowledge the many dangers these platforms are encouraging, such as stimulating the brain in similar ways to drugs or alcohol.
Looking past the marketing of event predictions, it is clear these platforms are unregulated entry points for addiction, and even though the entry point may not cost a lot, the final price of a gambling addiction could be crippling.
The solution to this issue becomes quite clear: Kalshi, Polymarket and any other event prediction platforms should be subject to the same laws that prohibit those under the age of 21 years old from utilizing their sites. Gambling addictions are just as harmful as any other form of addiction, and it is the responsibility of the government to place age restrictions that protect young people, who are more vulnerable to addiction.
There are many resources available to people struggling with gambling addiction and all other forms of addiction. If you, or someone you know, is struggling with a gambling addiction, encourage them to reach out to the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-589-9966 or by reviewing resources provided by the Ohio Department of Behavioral Health.
Jack Shirley is a freshman studying journalism at Ohio University. Please note the opinions expressed in this column do not represent those of The Post. Want to talk to Jack about their column? Email them at js553624@ohio.edu.
