Trey Lance. Zach Wilson. Justin Fields. Mac Jones. Yes, they are all failed 2021 first-round picks, but they are also part of a much larger problem.
The National Football League has a serious young quarterback development problem. Giving these inexperienced young athletes the necessary time to hone their skills at the highest level or developing a functional team around them to ease that process, is a thing of the past for most franchises.
The easiest explanation is modern media. Teams are heavily pressured to act by fan outrage and critical network coverage. To their credit, the masses are hard to avoid because this is by far the most connected, fast-moving media landscape we have ever seen, which is making it hard for franchises to escape the backlash.
To the casual fan, this is enough to write off the lowly quarterback play we witness every Sunday. To the more informed, the 2011 rookie wage scale took all the risk out of drafting signal-callers in the NFL Draft.
Before the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement introduced the rookie wage scale, teams had significant financial commitments to their early first-rounders, giving them an incentive to let these players grow and hopefully pan out.
Think of Drew Brees, Troy Aikman and Alex Smith. None of these players came out of the chute as bona fide studs or even good players.
Aikman’s rookie season saw him go 0-11 as a starter, throwing just nine touchdowns to 18 interceptions. This poor play continued, but Dallas gave him time to work through the early woes, and he turned into a star. He went on to win three Super Bowls in four years with the Cowboys, proving their patience was worth what is seen as a risk in today’s NFL.
The rookie wage scale turned the tide. Each pick of the draft was given a valuation, meaning teams would sign them for a predetermined length and salary. This system was meant to stop skyrocketing rookie guarantees, like Sam Bradford or JaMarcus Russell, and give teams financial flexibility to build around young quarterbacks.
In some facets, it worked. The 2013-14 Seattle Seahawks, in the midst of their “Legion of Boom” era, built around a young Russell Wilson to win a championship. However, for the most part, it backfired.
Franchises now take quarterbacks early, thrust them into starting roles with dysfunctional rosters and questionable coaching, and expect their dynasty run to start right away.
When they play like an inexperienced quarterback, it is on to the next.
The shelf life of a modern-day quarterback, especially one taken in the first round, is much lower than some may think. A standard rookie contract for a first-round rookie is four years. The highly scrutinized fifth-year option rule allows teams to extend that contract an additional year.
However, teams must exercise or decline the option following the player’s third regular season, with that deadline usually coming in early May.
This option, coinciding with the base four-year contract, causes teams to make early decisions on whether a player will be their “franchise guy.” While it is nearly harmless to pick up that option for a rotational edge rusher, picking it up for a quarterback signifies real commitment.
This essentially leads franchises to make a decision following the quarterback's second season, as they know the fifth-year decision is looming the next offseason.
To summarize, that is two years. Two years to figure out how to be a solid starter in the most watched sports league in the U.S. If Drew Brees was given two years in the modern NFL, he would be bagging groceries by the midway point of his sophomore season.
This model of quarterback development, or lack thereof, is dying for revision. Unfortunately, it will likely never happen. CBAs are tedious (just ask the MLB about that), and social media will always be ready to give up on a quarterback early.
This is what makes it so easy to ask what happened to players in the years following the implementation of the rookie wage scale. “Can’t miss” prospects like Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold were washed away by unstable environments and impatient fans.
Front offices continue to cave to the pressure, and nobody can blame them. Giving a quarterback an illustrious second contract normally represents a financial commitment far north of $100 million. If a prospect is not a stud right away, they move on.
Look at Sam Darnold. He is why teams should be more patient. Minnesota took a flier on him after struggles in New York and years of being a backup and he balled out. Fast forward one year later and he hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
Geno Smith. Labeled a bust with the Jets, written off and reemerged with Seattle to lead the NFL in completion percentage at age 32 in 2022.
There are plenty of examples. There are far more featuring quarterbacks with undeniable talent who were never given a second chance in a good system with stability and capable weapons.
The expectation of a savior is what kills prospects before they can ever flourish. Zach Wilson with the lowly 2021 New York Jets may be the best possible example. Thrown into the starting lineup, surrounded by mediocrity and awful ownership, failed by underperforming coaches who would be fired by Black Monday.
If the NFL wants change, fans are more than ready. Any seasoned watcher of the league will tell you this: Quarterback play is at an all-time low, and they are right.
