An enrollment drop caused by the semester switch could cost the university up to $20 million, if past trends continue.
A 2000 study suggests that Ohio University's credit hour production could decline by as much as 20 percent over two years, as students try to avoid being caught in the conversion.
The report, which surveyed 75 colleges in Utah, Georgia and Alabama that converted to semesters in 1998 and 1999, recorded enrollment declines at universities that caused a budgetary shortfall and led to measures such as hiring freezes and reductions in scholarships offered.
Over the two years surveyed, a total of 67 transition colleges in Alabama and Georgia declined by an average of about 19 percent and 12 percent respectively, according to the study. The eight conversion colleges in Utah fared best of the three systems, dropping an average of about 6 percent. The study noted that colleges whose enrollment dropped did not recover immediately.
In 2007, a university committee projected that OU's credit hour production would drop between 2 and 9 percent during a semester switch.
Transition team members have said OU would be shielded from enrollment drops, because the final four public Ohio colleges on the quarter system are transitioning to semesters simultaneously, and students would not be able to find quarters anywhere else within the state.
According to the 2000 study, which analyzed systemwide conversions similar to Ohio's, as transition colleges in Alabama lost enrollment, non-transition universities grew and expanded by 2 percent.
In Utah, which fared best among transition states, the single non-transition school grew by 22 percent over the two years surveyed in the study.
In the second year of the survey when - much like Ohio - the vast majority of state universities were already using the semester calendar, three Alabama colleges converted to semesters, losing about20 percent of their credit hour production.
The report noted that high-school enrollment or graduation did not decline over the time studied and should not be considered as an explanation for the college enrollment declines.
John Day, associate vice provost for the academic budget, said an enrollment decline of1 percent would be equivalent to about $1.6 million in lost tuition and state subsidy. He added that 100 students are equivalent to about $1 million in revenue.
This means that, if credit hour production drops by levels described in the 2000 report, the university would lose between $12.8 million and $20 million.
If OU drops by the levels described in the 2007 study, the conversion could cost the university between$2.1 million and$9.5 million.
These losses do not include state funding, which accounts for about 33 percent of the university's enrollment-based income.
Day said the state funding system, previously based purely on credit hour production, is in transition. He added though it is difficult to speculate what effect a new system will have on revenue, projections show that the new funding model, which considers student performance, will benefit OU.
Day also said OU would most likely see a spike in revenue just before the conversion as students originally scheduled to graduate under the semester system take more classes, hoping to graduate early on quarters.
Craig Cornell, vice provost for enrollment management, said he isn't sure the 2000 study could be applied to OU because there are too many factors to consider when studying enrollment. He added the transition team would do everything possible to plan for and adjust to accommodate any possible drops in enrollment.
David Descutner, co-chairman of the transition team and associate provost for Undergraduate Education, said though he questioned the validity of the study, the university will be prepared for enrollment declines by educating both current and prospective students about the conversion with the purpose of easing any concerns that would drive them either to leave or avoid OU.
I don't think going into this just hoping for everything to be fine is smart
he said, adding the university should budget for a possible enrollment decline and maintain a funding reserve to account for potential losses just so we're not surprised.
Descutner added he did know if possible enrollment declines had been presented to the Board of Trustees.
According to the 2000 study, even schools with initiatives specifically designed to manage enrollment losses declined.
Kennesaw State University had a number of informational initiatives to inform students, but still lost 11 percent of the credit hour production.
Mike Williford, associate provost of institutional research, said he could not speak to the 2000 study's validity, but he had predicted the possibility of an enrollment drop in the past. He added the team was doing everything possible to plan for transition problems.
We're doing what we can to monitor that and prevent (an enrollment drop) from happening he said.
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Frank Thomas
