For the first time in four years, the Academy Awards ceremony at 8 p.m. Sunday on ABC might not be a colossal bore.
The acid-tongued Chris Rock is hosting, Peter Jackson and his hobbits have retired to the Shire, and two Hollywood legends are neck-and-neck for the two biggest prizes of the evening.
Here is a look at what will happen, what might happen and what should happen during the closest Oscar race so far this century.
BEST PICTURE: Will it be Martin Scorsese's The Aviator or Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby? The Aviator leads with 11 nominations, but Baby has gained shocking momentum in the past month, and it should be just enough for a win.
And rightly so. Eastwood's film is a masterpiece, executed simply but infinitely complex. The Aviator, Sideways, Finding Neverland and Ray aren't even in its league.
BEST DIRECTOR: An Oscar for Scorsese here would certainly be penance for overlooking him four other times, but who wants the great director to finally win for one of the sloppiest, least interesting movies he has ever made?
Eastwood's gentle hold on Baby is the stuff of which this category is made, but don't count on a win for him. Picture/Director splits have been common recently, so this award could go either way.
BEST ACTOR: Jamie Foxx (Ray) is the surest bet of any award this year. His supporting nomination for Collateral could split his vote, allowing Eastwood to win for Million Dollar Baby, but that's crazy talk.
Though Foxx is a marvel, perfectly emulating Ray Charles, Eastwood deserves to win for his character's haunting descent into spiritual turmoil at the end of Baby.
BEST ACTRESS: In the highest quality category of them all, the Academy cannot go wrong, but they'll choose Hilary Swank for her performance in Million Dollar Baby. Annette Bening deserves the prize for her hilarious diva antics in Being Julia.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: This category can be surprising, but Morgan Freeman's first-ever win for Million Dollar Baby is likely. He has competition: Clive Owen was fierce in Closer -he deserves to win -and Alan Alda's villainous turn in The Aviator is that perfect dark horse that the Academy likes to spring here or in the next category ...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Who knows? Voters love the comeback story (Virginia Madsen, Sideways), the celebrity impersonation (Cate Blanchett, The Aviator) and the risky star turn (Natalie Portman, Closer). They also love Katharine Hepburn, and Blanchett's showy embodiment of the legendary star might give her a win. This is Madsen's Oscar, though, and was as soon as she delivered that heartbreaking 'wine is life' monologue in Sideways.
Above all else, remember: these are the Academy Awards, and if everyone got what they deserved, there would be no reason to yell, boo and throw things at the TV. Isn't that what it's all about?
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Matt Burns
