Less than a year ago, Miguel Cabrera looked as if he could play until he was 50.
One of the most talented hitters in history, Cabrera was hitting .311 with 35 home runs and an on-base plus slugging (OPS) percentage of .940 — at the age of 33. The two time MVP was showing no signs of slowing down.
Coming into 2017, Tigers fans expected the same production from their star player. Despite their hopes, however, Cabrera simply didn't deliver — Cabrera finished the season with a .249 batting average, 16 home runs and a .728 OPS.
With Cabrera’s lackluster 2017 season, the question begs to be asked: What happened? Has Cabrera simply grown old and faded, or have the baseball gods turned against him?
I’m not one to believe in "baseball gods," but when it comes to Cabrera’s season, I see no other explanation for his lack of production. It’s easy to blame his poor numbers on age or injuries, but the facts say otherwise.
Statistically, Cabrera is stronger than in his first year with the Tigers in 2008. Cabrera’s hard ball percentage in 2017 is 42.5 percent, while his career average is 39.4 percent (league average is 30 percent). It’s clear to any baseball fan that Cabrera has not lost his power.
When it comes to seeing the ball, Cabrera is only one percentage point below last year’s contact percentage average of 79 percent. Meanwhile, his strikeout percentage has only risen by a mere three percent. A small difference can definitely cause a change — but not such a drastic difference between Cabrera’s 2016 and 2017 campaign.
Truly, the only difference between Cabrera’s 2016 and 2017 seasons is merely pull rate, or how often a player pulls the baseball. Sometimes, a rise in pull rate means a player is off balance, and therefore, his line drive percentage dwindles and either his in-field fly ball percentage (IFFB) or ground ball percentage increases. Cabrera, however, has had a rise in line drive percentage, and a decrease in ground ball and IFFB percentage. There is no reason to believe Cabrera should have dropped off to such an extent.
In fact, Cabrera has been the unluckiest player in baseball. Cabrera leads MLB in expected wOBA (xwOBA). He has an xwOBA of .388, 16th in baseball, while his actual wOBA of .328 ranks 181st. Maybe Cabrera has been cursed by the baseball gods after all.
Based on the batted ball statistics and the new MLB StatCast measurements, there is no reason to believe Cabrera should have had such a poor 2017 season. On the other hand, the inside statistics show Cabrera should actually be one of the top performers in baseball. Cabrera better go pray to the baseball gods, because he needs his luck to be turned around.
In the end, counting on no major injuries and the baseball gods' blessing, MLB fans should expect a bounce-back year from one of the best players in baseball history next year.
