This is the fifth in a series of previews, which will cover nine Ohio position groups ahead of the 2018 season. The Bobcats start the season Sept. 1 at Peden Stadium against Howard. For more, check The Post in the coming weeks.
Aug. 20: Quarterbacks | Aug. 21: Running backs | Aug. 22: Receivers | Aug. 26: Tight ends | Aug. 27: Offensive line | Aug. 28: Defensive line | Aug. 29: Linebackers | Aug. 30: Defensive backs | Aug. 31: Specialists
Today’s Position: Offensive Line
Projected Starter: LT Joe Lowery (redshirt senior), LG Joe Anderson (redshirt senior), C Brett Kitrell (sophomore), RG Durrell Wood (redshirt senior), RT Austen Pleasants (redshirt junior).
Key backups: RG Hagen Meservy (sophomore), LT Marques Grimes (redshirt junior).
Newcomers: Guard Kurt Danneker (freshman), tackle Patrick Gilliland (freshman), center Tristan Kieffer (freshman), tackle Bryce Ramer (freshman).
Breakdown: For all the talk about how Ohio’s offense can be one of the best in the nation in 2018, everything starts with the offensive line.
Between Joe Lowery, Joe Anderson and Durrell Wood, the three redshirt seniors have combined to play in 63 games in their college careers. It helps make up the most formidable offensive line in the Mid-American Conference.
“I say it and I believe it, we have virtually two tackles who are draftable I think,” offensive coordinator Tim Albin said at the Bobcats’ annual media day. “I know being a MAC school you don't say those types of things, but we have a lot of experience there. They're bigger, faster, stronger and they know the game. If we can stay healthy up front, then it should be a lot of fun."
Quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers are judged on traditional statistics like yards and touchdowns, but there aren’t too many standard statistics that gauge how effective an offensive line is. Luckily, Football Outsiders developed a number of advanced statistics to more clearly define an offensive line’s strengths and weaknesses — in run blocking and pass protection.
One of those stats is the "Opportunity Rate." It’s defined as the percentage of carries that gain at least five yards when five yards are available. Last season, Ohio’s Opportunity Rate was 43.9 percent, best for ninth among FBS programs.
Another stat used to measure the effectiveness of the offensive line is the "Standard Down Sacks" rate, which according to its definition is the unadjusted sack rate for standard downs pass attempts. The Bobcats ranked fifth in the country with a 2.3 rate.
Still, there’s improvement that can be made. Ohio struggled in "Passing Downs Sack Rate," the unadjusted sack rate for passing downs pass attempts. It placed the Bobcats in the lower half of the country, finishing 87th with 9.1 in that situation. It’s an important stat because it shows why quarterback Nathan Rourke may have scrambled more times than needed.
In the running game, the analysis from Football Outsiders shows that "Power Success Rate" — the percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown — for the Bobcats was 67.9 percent, placing them 21st in the nation. For context, the highest rated team in this category was Army, with 87.2 percent. The worst team was Baylor, with 50 percent.
The Bobcats lose just one starter from last year’s offensive line: center Jake Pruehs. He was the heart of the line for them, the most vocal leader and the one who set the tone up front. Brett Kitrell will be thrown into the fire in just his second season with the program, and the coaching staff understands that there may be some growing pains.
Still, there shouldn’t be a learning curve for the rest. Lowery was named to the 2018 Outland Trophy watch list earlier in the month. Wood returns after a medical redshirt year and brings the most experience to the group. Anderson and Lowery give Rourke the best protection any quarterback could have in the conference. Ohio also added a new offensive line coach this spring in Bart Miller, and not a single player has a bad thing to say. They love the intensity he brings to the field, something they seem to feel may have been missing in years past.
Best-case scenario: Lowery contends for the Outland Trophy. The running game only improves and the line holds back pass rushers even more from years past. With more time in the pocket, Rourke can continue to grow as a passer. Wood exchanges snaps with Meservy and the right side of the line becomes just as strong as the left.
Worst-case scenario: Anderson or Lowery sustain season-ending injuries, forcing the unknown depth to show. Kitrell’s learning curve isn’t as short as the coaching staff hoped, causing fumbles and miscommunication at the line.
