The U.S. campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran has escalated into the largest regional conflict since the 1991 Gulf War. The collapse of diplomacy and the crackdown on protestors preceded a joint U.S.-Israeli offensive. The operation, designated Operation Epic Fury by the U.S. and Operation Roaring Lion by Israel, began Feb. 28.
In the opening hours, Israeli forces struck the Supreme Leader's compound in Tehran. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and much of his inner circle are confirmed dead, according to CNN, but as the war enters its sixth week, the fate of his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, is still uncertain. Although Tehran’s leadership is not a traditionally hereditary role, Mojtaba was appointed quickly to ensure regime security. Russian officials say Mojtaba remains in Iran, though he hasn’t appeared publicly.
This uncertainty is why an exit strategy was never clear. Decapitation strikes can destabilize a government, but they rarely produce a controlled outcome. The combination of unclear leadership, ongoing diplomacy and active military pressure points to a conflict without a defined end state. Even before the most recent developments, there was little indication of what political outcome could actually conclude the war.
As of April 3, this conflict has drawn in at least 15 countries. Much of the Gulf has endured attacks from Iranian drones and missiles, while countries such as Cyprus and Turkey have experienced targeting as well. Iran has attacked U.S. positions at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, Erbil Air Base in Iraq and a naval base in Bahrain, causing at least seven casualties.
A U.S. KC-135 Stratotanker crash in Iraq killed six airmen, but government sources say the crash was an accident unrelated to enemy fire, according to U.S. Central Command. On its own, that might seem like a small error, but in a conflict like this, even accidents carry weight. They add to the human cost and raise pressure at home, especially when the broader mission remains unclear.
More importantly, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has threatened American companies and universities across the region. Rather than purely focusing on standard military targets, this far has continually shifted into the economic and civilian space. Most U.S-linked businesses, researchers and students are now potential targets, even if they are not directly involved in the conflict.
Regional actors, meaning states directly affected by the conflict, are responding with caution. Gulf states are reinforcing their defenses, Israel continues operations alongside U.S. forces, and Ukraine now provides intelligence and logistical support, reflecting a broader effort to counter Iranian expansion.
Additionally, Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have reportedly pushed for deeper involvement in the conflict. They're pushing signals of expectations of a longer war in the region, rather than preparing for de-escalation. Instead, they are preparing for spillover and possible expansion.
Maritime control is also increasingly critical for both sides. Iran has partially closed the Strait of Hormuz, forcing some commercial vessels, particularly Chinese-owned ships, to pay up to $2 million, according to NBC News and The New York Times.
The U.S. and its allies have mobilized to counter these restrictions, engaging Iranian vessels and submarines, though drones, inland missiles and potentially sea mines still pose threats. For the U.S. and its allies, keeping the Strait open is essential to maintaining economic stability and energy access.
The human death toll in Iran is severe, as well. Urban areas have suffered repeated strikes, resulting in civilian casualties, infrastructure damage and major disruptions to water, electricity and medical services. Internally, reports point to rising unrest, but information remains limited due to ongoing hostilities and restricted reporting.
President Donald Trump has continued to claim the war is progressing well and that most goals are near completion, including posts on Truth Social. At least 50,000 U.S. troops are deployed in the region, including a Marine Expeditionary Force, paratroopers and soon, an additional aircraft carrier, according to The Associated Press. The likely objective is to secure Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports.
Special Operations Forces might also be operating in the region, likely to prevent sabotage of critical infrastructure on Kharg Island, which Tehran may attempt to destroy in a last-resort effort.
Despite troop deployments, a full-scale invasion remains unlikely. Unpopularity at home and the risk of high-profile casualties make such an operation politically and logistically difficult. Nevertheless, Congress is moving to approve an additional $200 billion in war funding, potentially affecting domestic priorities such as healthcare.
Looking ahead, a contained conflict appears increasingly unlikely. Despite Israeli sources citing an April 9 end date, factors like IRGC dominance, unclear U.S. objectives and regional escalation make a quick resolution doubtful. Broader aims may include limiting China’s access to Iranian oil and maintaining long-term control over regional energy flows, as seen in Operation Southern Spear earlier this year. With Iranian leadership splintered, the central question is whether escalation can be contained before it exceeds expectations on either side.
Hunter is a senior studying political science and international studies at Ohio University. Please note the opinions expressed in this column do not represent those of The Post. Want to talk to Hunter about their column? Email them at hp626321@ohio.edu
