Well, the Mid-American Conference has once again tied itself into a knot with the end of the regular season on the horizon. There are a bunch of scenarios that could shift the standings, and only two teams have locked up a spot.
But before we get into the scenarios, let’s lay out the MAC’s tiebreaking procedures. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head competition. If the teams split the regular-season series, then the deciding factor will be winning percentage versus ranked conference teams (record versus the No. 1 seed and continuing down until there is a difference between the squads). Because the deciding factor is winning percentage, not wins, a team that is 1-0 against a highly ranked seed will get the tiebreaker against a squad that is 1-1 against the same seed.
If the two squads match up identically against the entire conference, then a simple coin flip will decide which team will receive the higher seed in the tournament.
If three or more teams are tied with the same conference record, then the won-lost record against all of the other tied teams will be the deciding factor. This would end up looking like a round-robin tournament-style tiebreaker. If teams are still knotted up after that tiebreaker, then the procedure reverts to head-to-head record, then to winning percentage versus ranked opponents, then to a coin flip.
Confused? Me too. Disregarding non-conference games, let’s take a look at the MAC. The rankings listed would be the tournament seeds if the regular season ended today.
1. Akron (12-3 MAC)
After dropping two straight games, the Zips need a win against rival Kent State or a Buffalo loss to wrap up the top seed. With a loss and a Buffalo win, Akron will be the No. 2 seed. Thus, the Zips have wrapped up a triple bye.
2. Buffalo (11-4)
The Bulls swept the season series against the Zips and own the tiebreaker against the current top dog in the MAC. A Senior Night win against Bowling Green and an Akron loss would give Buffalo the No. 1 seed, a split of the MAC regular-season title and a triple bye. A win and an Akron win would lock up the No. 2 seed and a triple bye for the Bulls. A loss and an Ohio win would drop the Bulls to the third slot, which includes a double bye. The Bobcats swept the Bulls during the regular season and thus own the tiebreaker.
3. Ohio (10-5)
A disappointing loss to Kent State Wednesday night makes things very interesting for the Bobcats, who can finish anywhere between second place and fifth place. Ohio will be the No. 2 seed with a win against Miami Friday night and a Buffalo loss. A win and a Buffalo win would wrap up a double bye and the No. 3 seed, as would a Kent State loss to Akron and an Eastern Michigan loss to Toledo. An Ohio loss and a loss by either (but not both) Kent State and Eastern Michigan would put Ohio in fourth place. If Eastern Michigan and Kent State both win, and Ohio loses, then the Bobcats fall all the way to fifth place and will host a first-round playoff game at The Convo next Monday.
4. Kent State (10-5)
The Golden Flashes contributed to this mess with a hard-fought win against the Bobcats. A Kent State win Friday against Akron and an Ohio loss to Miami would vault the Golden Flashes into third place. Kent State will be the No. 4 seed with an Ohio win. But if Kent State and Ohio both lose and Eastern Michigan and Bowling Green both win, Kent State falls all the way to fifth place because Eastern Michigan would vault into third place in a bizarre round-robin tiebreaker. If Kent State loses, Ohio wins and Bowling Green and/or Eastern Michigan wins, the Golden Flashes will be No. 4 because they own tiebreakers against Bowling Green and Eastern Michigan. Buffalo owns the tiebreaker against Kent State, so the Golden Flashes cannot gain the No. 2 seed and the triple bye.
5. Eastern Michigan (9-6)
Four teams could end up at 10-6, making this a highly volatile seed. Eastern Michigan can move as high as No. 3 with Kent State and Ohio losses AND a Bowling Green win against Buffalo. A Kent State win and Ohio loss would make the Eagles the No. 4 seed. Wins by Kent State, Ohio and Eastern Michigan would keep the Eagles in fifth and would force them to host a first-round game. A loss and a Bowling Green win would drop Eastern Michigan to sixth place.
6. Bowling Green (9-6)
The Falcons are guaranteed a home game in the first round of the tournament and will end up in fifth or sixth place. Bowling Green could end up in a tie with any combination of Eastern Michigan, Kent State and Ohio, but the Falcons do not own a tiebreaker against any of those teams. Bowling Green will be the No. 5 seed with a win against Buffalo and an Eastern Michigan loss. Any other outcome from either the Falcons or Eagles would keep Bowling Green at the No. 6 slot.
7. Toledo (6-9)
Despite dropping a contest to last-place Northern Illinois Wednesday night, the Rockets remain in seventh place in the MAC. Toledo will lock up the No. 7 spot and a first-round home game with a win against Eastern Michigan Saturday. They can also finish at No. 7 with a loss and a Western Michigan loss. Toledo could wind up in a three- or four-way tie at 6-10 with Western Michigan, Ball State and/or Miami, but the Rockets own tiebreakers against all those teams. In that case, Western Michigan and Toledo would have 3-2 composite records against the other tied teams, and Toledo would own that tiebreaker because it beat Ohio and Western Michigan has not beaten Ohio or any team ranked higher than the Bobcats. A Toledo loss and Western Michigan win would drop Toledo to eighth place, but not ninth or 10th, because the Rockets own tiebreakers against Miami and Ball State.
8. Western Michigan (6-9)
The Broncos can land as high as sixth with a win against Central Michigan Friday night and a Toledo loss to Eastern Michigan. Western Michigan could fall to 6-10 and be tied with Ball State and/or Miami, but the Broncos own tiebreakers against both teams (Western Michigan and Ball State split the regular-season series and played the ranked conference teams equally all the way down to Miami. The Broncos beat the RedHawks, but the Cardinals did not). Thus, Western Michigan is guaranteed to have a home game in the first round of the tournament.
9. Miami (5-10)
The RedHawks will play a road game in the tournament as the No. 9 or No. 10 seed. If the RedHawks finish 6-10 with a win against Ohio Friday, they will be No. 9 regardless of other results because they do not own head-to-head or round-robin tiebreakers against Toledo or Western Michigan, but they do own head-to-head and round-robin tiebreakers against Ball State, currently 10th in the rankings. If Miami loses and Ball State defeats Northern Illinois, it will fall to the 10th seed.
10. Ball State (5-10)
The Cardinals will also play a road game in the tournament. They find themselves as the loser in every tiebreaker if two or more teams end up at 6-10, so their only shot at moving up is defeating Northern Illinois and hoping for a Miami loss to Ohio. Ball State swept Central Michigan and will not fall to the 11th seed.
11. Central Michigan (4-11)
The Chippewas are locked in as the 11th seed. They do not own the tiebreaker against Ball State to leapfrog the Cardinals in the case of a tie, and Central Michigan owns the tiebreaker against Northern Illinois because of two wins against Eastern Michigan.
12. Northern Illinois (3-12)
The Huskies are the cellar dwellers regardless of any outcome. They do not own the tiebreaker against Central Michigan, the only team within sniffing distance.
ms229908@ohiou.edu
