Last week, senior military commanders stood by an earlier statement that some U.S. troops should be able to return home from Iraq early next year. Unfortunately, a complex web of factors is involved in considering the likelihood of a troop reduction in the foreseeable future. With hope, enough progress soon will be made to ensure that as many Americans as possible can return home.
One concern, voiced most predominantly by congressional Democrats, is the number of top-level Iraqi battalions actually decreasing from three to one since June. However, military commanders were quick to dismiss the significance of this on various newscasts last week. According to those in charge of stabilizing Iraq, the most important development is the effective training of Iraqi security forces. On that note, larger numbers of Iraqis are in the field at various levels of training and are engaged in more security operations. Assuming political and security progress continues, reductions in U.S. forces could take place as early as next spring, Gen. George W. Casey said in a Washington Post article.
Unfortunately for American soldiers and their families, there is no guarantee that political and security conditions will be as favorable as those to which military officials have alluded. Although more Iraqis are being groomed for combat than ever before, the 2-year-old insurgency rages on. Commanders remain confident the insurgency is weakening and eventually will be quelled, but only time will tell whether their optimism is warranted. Meanwhile, continued political progress could stifle the ideological fervor of the insurgents and strengthen the resolve of Iraqi civilians. On that front, voting on a draft for Iraq's constitution is scheduled for Oct. 15 and elections for a new government are slated for December.
Progress is possible in the coming months, but Iraq is still a painful quagmire for the United States. A continuing insurgency and political disputes among the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds could prevent the level of progress needed to bring American troops home. However, pulling out completely is simply not an option, as this would only serve to further destabilize Iraq and undermine all previous efforts. Politicians and military commanders must continue to set strict political and security goals, respectively. Such progress could aid in bringing home as many American troops as possible in the coming year.
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